Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
As small alcids go, this one is relatively well known. The Ancient Murrelet disperses south along the West Coast of the U.S. in winter, with small numbers occurring close to shore. Audubon's climate model suggests that such sightings may decline in the decades ahead, with the species’ winter range shifting northward. Overall, an increase in the total amount of climatically suitable area is forecast. Given this alcid’s relatively strong powers of dispersal, it would seem to be a candidate for a climate-mediated range shift. Not examined is the situation during the breeding season, at which time the Ancient Murrelet is known to be susceptible to introduced predators.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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