Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
Although locally common in oak scrublands, the Black-capped Vireo is a Federally-listed Endangered species. Its favored habitat is under siege from a host of threats: overgrazing, “weed” control, fire suppression, development, and brood parasitism by cowbirds. Audubon’s climate model shows huge growth—by 300+ percent—of suitable climate space for this vireo, but that result will likely not translate into an actual range expansion. Since the bulk of suitable climate space predicted by the model is centered in California coast, far from where the species occurs, it would be virtually impossible for this vireo to colonize that area. Of particular concern is that only 5 percent of currently suitable climate space for the Black-capped Vireo is considered by the model to be stable.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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