Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
Formerly persecuted for being so predatory, the Merlin has staged a remarkable recovery in recent years. Counts have increased at many, but not all, migration monitoring stages, and numbers have generally risen in winter. But the truly dramatic story has been on the breeding grounds, as the species has rapidly spread southward in Canada, the Great Lakes region, and the northeastern U.S. Audubon's climate model projects a reversal of these recent gains, showing a dramatic loss of 97 percent of its current summer range. One thing the Merlin may have going for it—even in the face of climate change—is its recent successes in suburban and urban districts.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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