Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
Across much of the U.S., the Tree Swallow is the hardiest swallow species. It returns early in spring, leaves late in fall, and winters in the southern U.S. According to Audubon's climate model, Tree Swallows will soon be wintering farther north and farther inland. The model predicts a 56 percent loss of current winter range, with some potential expansion during that season, but with some currently favorable areas along and near the Gulf Coast forecast to become less available for wintering Tree Swallows. A similar pattern is in store for summer: a 61 percent loss of current range, with the range drifting northward. Any northward spread will require nest sites: standing dead trees or human-supplied bird boxes.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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