Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
This classic “LBJ,” or “little brown job,” is one of the world’s most accomplished migrants. The Gray-cheeked Thrush winters in Amazonia, and many breeders penetrate well into the Russian Far East. The Audubon climate model’s focus is on the North American nesting population, showing a general shift northward of the species’ already far-northern breeding range. Areas of suitable climate for this thrush are projected to decline by about 30 percent in Canada and Alaska, as available land area is simply pushed right to the shores of the Arctic Ocean. Additionally of concern, only 33% of the current range is predicted to be climate stable. Of interest is the possibility that this diminutive but powerful flier may be able to infiltrate new areas of suitable habitat in Greenland and Russia.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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