Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
Among six species of spot-breasted thrushes (five in the genus Catharus, plus the Wood Thrush), this one stands out in three ways that may be relevant to anticipating climate change. The Hermit Thrush is the only spot-breasted thrush that winters widely in the U.S.; it occupies the broadest array of habitats in summer; and it exhibits the most geographic variation. Audubon's climate model predicts a result typical of widespread forest birds: contraction in summer, potential range expansion in winter, and an overall shift northward. The model projects a 73 percent loss of current summer range by 2080, highlighting the dramatic shift north. A one-size-fits-all approach will not work for this species, as wildlife managers will need to adapt the model’s forecasts on a population-by-population basis.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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