Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
This West Coast alcid is common, but generally seen well out at sea, and thus little known to most birders. Studies suggest its movements relate to changes in sea surface temperature, which can affect food availability. Research also suggests that short-term population fluctuations are connected to El Niño–La Niña phenomena. Audubon's climate model forecasts a substantial increase in the amount of climatically suitable areas for wintering birds, but only 17% of the current range remains stable. Unsurprisingly, much of this increase is predicted to be in the north. The key with the Cassin’s Auklet, and indeed with most if not all alcids, isn’t climate per se—these birds are hardy! Rather, it is whether their climatically sensitive prey will be able to adapt to and flourish in a changing climate, and whether the oceanic islands it needs for nesting will be in the new climate space.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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