Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
The ghoulish Barn Owl is highly appreciated as a nesting bird. Family groups are welcome around silos and other outbuildings because they are such voracious devourers of rodents. The species is less well known on the wintering grounds—forecast by Audubon's climate model to expand by nearly a quarter by 2080. As expected, the general shift predicted by the model is northward, all the way to southern Canada, where the Barn Owl currently is rare even in summer. Although the winter model portends a potential bright future for this owl, caution is warranted. Changing land-use practices and excessive use of rodenticides have diminished Barn Owl populations, and will continue to do so if not reversed or mitigated.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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