Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
Strictly coastal species like the Black Skimmer are risk-takers. Coastal storms can wipe out large chunks of any particular region’s population, and the direct and indirect effects of human activity have been largely negative. Audubon's climate model introduces additional challenges for this striking and already beleaguered denizen of barrier beaches and back bays. Climatically suitable areas are forecast to decline by nearly two-thirds in winter. Add to that the specter of rising sea levels, and the Black Skimmer’s best hope may be a range shift inland—a possible outcome according to the model.
Are the projected range maps different from the range maps in field guides? Find the answer here.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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