Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
In light of the Black-billed Magpie’s adaptability and hardiness, ornithologists have wondered why the species isn’t more widely distributed. Climate and geography seem to play a role: basically, the bird likes places in the West that are cold, but not too cold. And across much of the bird’s range, there seems to be a very broad correlation with ecosystems that have a sagebrush component. Audubon’s climate model forecasts withdrawal from the current summer range, with only 14% remaining stable and an overall decrease in summer area. But it also depicts suitable climate space north and east of where the species occurs today, especially in winter. If those regions become warmer, as is widely predicted to happen, then Black-billed Magpies, resourceful and capable of dispersal, may well become established in new suitable area.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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