Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
For most North American birders, Bohemian Waxwings are considered unpredictable and irruptive winter visitors. One winter, a flock of hundreds may descend upon suburban mountain ash and crabapple trees; the next, not a single bird. For North American populations, Audubon’s climate model shows a troubling trend in summer, with only 1% of current areas suitable by 2080, and a concurrent reduction of 81% of suitable climate space. Waxwings are frugivores, consumers of fruit. Since ornamental fruit trees are widely planted in suburbs of varying climates and indeed, the model shows the winter range to be relatively (48%) stable.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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