Each map is a visual guide to where a particular bird species may find the climate conditions it needs to survive in the future. We call this the bird’s “climatic range.”
The colors indicate the season in which the bird may find suitable conditions— blue for winter, yellow for summer (breeding), and green for where they overlap (indicating their presence year-round).
The darker the shaded area, the more likely it is the bird species will find suitable climate conditions to survive there.
The outline of the approximate current range for each season remains fixed in each frame, allowing you to compare how the range will expand, contract, or shift in the future.
The first frame of the animation shows where the bird can find a suitable climate today (based on data from 2000). The next three frames predict where this bird’s suitable climate may shift in the future—one frame each for 2020, 2050, and 2080.
You can play or pause the animation with the orange button in the lower left, or select an individual frame to study by clicking on its year.
Although widespread along our coasts, the Gull-billed Tern is very local in distribution, and populations everywhere are at risk. The southern California population, in particular, is faring poorly. Globally, the species is widely distributed, although, as in North America, spottily distributed. Audubon’s climate model forecasts changing future ahead, with particular challenges in the summer season. While the available climate space for this species may expand, only 38% of the current range will remain stable, and it will remain to be seen if the new areas are suitable for this tern to breed. Availability of well-watered marshlands, both coastally and inland, will largely determine this tern’s fate in our area and probably globally.
Explore more birds threatened by climate change around the country.
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